Within financial academia, there are three main groups of thinking regarding public equity pricing, all of which stem from the efficient-market hypothesis and depend on it to varying degrees. The strong form of market efficiency thinkers believe stock prices reflect all information that can be known about any business, including insider information, and that stock prices are wholly unexploitable for above-average risk-adjusted returns.
A few years ago I had a blog in which I used to post about the details of deep value investing and some of the methods by which an investor could go about exploiting market inefficiencies. Those posts weren't ever brought over to this site and it dawns on me that despite explaining some theoretical concepts, I've never explained much of anything about how I have been generating our performance over the past few years in basic, practical terms for anyone interested in hearing about it.
This is by far the most important thing I will ever write about investing and it is essentially mandatory reading for anyone looking to become a client and partner of this firm. If you're not with me on this you likely won't be a good fit for us (or for proper investing in general). What I will explain is extremely simple and in my opinion the most important thing to understand and follow in order to achieve excess returns but for whatever reason, it is difficult for most investors to implement in their practice.
This should be a short piece, but I wanted to use a few examples to describe the assumptions inherent in stock prices and why investors need to think through stock valuations. Given that price is a major factor in predicting future returns, investors should of course be unwilling to pay anything greater than the present value of all future free cash flows, discounted at an appropriate rate for any investment.
In 2013, Eugene Fama, Lars Hansen, and Robert Shiller won the Nobel Prize in Economics. It was an odd trio, given that Fama is one of the fathers of the efficient markets theory and Shiller wrote a book titled 'Irrational Exuberance' in which he discussed the irrationally high stock prices shortly before the crash of 1999.
“I’d be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient.” - Warren Buffett
“It is hard for me to see how anyone can consider the stock market efficient.” - Phil Fisher